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Distractions and amusements, with a sandwich and coffee.
visualization + design
They serve as the form for The Outbreak Poems.
`\pi` Day 2014 Art Posters
On March 14th celebrate `\pi` Day. Hug `\pi`—find a way to do it.
For those who favour `\tau=2\pi` will have to postpone celebrations until July 26th. That's what you get for thinking that `\pi` is wrong. I sympathize with this position and have `\tau` day art too!
If you're not into details, you may opt to party on July 22nd, which is `\pi` approximation day (`\pi` ≈ 22/7). It's 20% more accurate that the official `\pi` day!
Finally, if you believe that `\pi = 3`, you should read why `\pi` is not equal to 3.
For the 2014 `\pi` day, two styles of posters are available: folded paths and frequency circles.
The folded paths show `\pi` on a path that maximizes adjacent prime digits and were created using a protein-folding algorithm.
The frequency circles colourfully depict the ratio of digits in groupings of 3 or 6. Oh, look, there's the Feynman Point!
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E=-23 of 64 digits of Pi, sorted by aspect ratio. Start (3) and end (2) digits are highlighted.
(zoom, BUY ARTWORK)
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E=-23 of 64 digits of Pi, sorted by aspect ratio. Start (3) and end (2) digits are highlighted.
(zoom, BUY ARTWORK)
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E=-23 of 64 digits of Pi, sorted by aspect ratio. Prime (2 3 5 7) digits are are highlighted.
(zoom, BUY ARTWORK)
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E=-23 of 64 digits of Pi, sorted by aspect ratio. Digits are colored by prime/composite status.
(zoom, BUY ARTWORK)
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E=-223 to -220 of 768 digits of Pi, sorted by aspect ratio. Start (3) and end (999999) digits are highlighted.
(zoom, BUY ARTWORK)
buy artwork
E=-223 to -220 of 768 digits of Pi, sorted by aspect ratio.. Start (3) and end (999999) digits are highlighted.
(zoom, BUY ARTWORK)
buy artwork
E=-223 to -220 of 768 digits of Pi, sorted by aspect ratio.. Prime (2 3 5 7) digits are are highlighted.
(zoom, BUY ARTWORK)
buy artwork
E=-223 to -220 of 768 digits of Pi, sorted by aspect ratio. Digits are colored by prime/composite status.
(zoom, BUY ARTWORK)
E=-223 to -209 of 768 digits of Pi, sorted by distance between start and end points (2.2–7.0). Start (3) and end (999999) digits are highlighted.
(zoom)
E=-223 of 768 digits of Pi. Start (3) and end (999999) digits are highlighted, as well as all prime digits. This path took about 1 CPU year to find. (37x51, r=0.725, area=1887, cm=1.9/13.4, dend=24.4)
(zoom)
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news + thoughts
Standardization fallacy
We demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty! —D. Adams
A popular notion about experiments is that it's good to keep variability in subjects low to limit the influence of confounding factors. This is called standardization.
Unfortunately, although standardization increases power, it can induce unrealistically low variability and lead to results that do not generalize to the population of interest. And, in fact, may be irreproducible.
Not paying attention to these details and thinking (or hoping) that standardization is always good is the "standardization fallacy". In this column, we look at how standardization can be balanced with heterogenization to avoid this thorny issue.
Voelkl, B., Würbel, H., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2021) Points of significance: Standardization fallacy. Nature Methods 18:5–6.
Graphical Abstract Design Guidelines
Clear, concise, legible and compelling.
Making a scientific graphical abstract? Refer to my practical design guidelines and redesign examples to improve organization, design and clarity of your graphical abstracts.
"This data might give you a migrane"
An in-depth look at my process of reacting to a bad figure — how I design a poster and tell data stories.
He said, he said — a word analysis of the 2020 Presidential Debates
Building on the method I used to analyze the 2008, 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential and Vice Presidential debates, I explore word usagein the 2020 Debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Points of Significance celebrates 50th column
We are celebrating the publication of our 50th column!
To all our coauthors — thank you and see you in the next column!
Uncertainty and the management of epidemics
When modelling epidemics, some uncertainties matter more than others.
Public health policy is always hampered by uncertainty. During a novel outbreak, nearly everything will be uncertain: the mode of transmission, the duration and population variability of latency, infection and protective immunity and, critically, whether the outbreak will fade out or turn into a major epidemic.
The uncertainty may be structural (which model?), parametric (what is `R_0`?), and/or operational (how well do masks work?).
This month, we continue our exploration of epidemiological models and look at how uncertainty affects forecasts of disease dynamics and optimization of intervention strategies.
We show how the impact of the uncertainty on any choice in strategy can be expressed using the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI), which is the potential improvement in outcomes that could be obtained if the uncertainty is resolved before making a decision on the intervention strategy. In other words, by how much could we potentially increase effectiveness of our choice (e.g. lowering total disease burden) if we knew which model best reflects reality?
This column has an interactive supplemental component (download code) that allows you to explore the impact of uncertainty in `R_0` and immunity duration on timing and size of epidemic waves and the total burden of the outbreak and calculate EVPI for various outbreak models and scenarios.
Bjørnstad, O.N., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2020) Points of significance: Uncertainty and the management of epidemics. Nature Methods 17.
Background reading
Bjørnstad, O.N., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2020) Points of significance: Modeling infectious epidemics. Nature Methods 17:455–456.
Bjørnstad, O.N., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2020) Points of significance: The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics. Nature Methods 17:557–558.