In your hiding, you're alone. Kept your treasures with my bones.crawl somewhere bettermore quotes

The Outbreak Poems — artistic emissions in a pandemic

visualization + design

“Transcendental Tree Map” from Yearning for the Infinite. This video premiered on 2020 Pi Day. Music by Max Cooper. Animation by Nick Cobby and myself.
The 2020 Pi Day art celebrates digits of $\pi$ with piku (パイク) —poetry inspired by haiku.
They serve as the form for The Outbreak Poems.
A $\pi$ day music video!: Transcendental Tree Map premieres on 2020 Pi Day from Max Cooper's Yearning for the Infinite. Animation by Nick Cobby and myself. Watch live from Barbican Centre.

$\pi$ Day 2014 Art Posters

2019 $\pi$ has hundreds of digits, hundreds of languages and a special kids' edition.
2018 $\pi$ day
2017 $\pi$ day
2016 $\pi$ approximation day
2016 $\pi$ day
2015 $\pi$ day
2014 $\pi$ approx day
2014 $\pi$ day
2013 $\pi$ day
Circular $\pi$ art

On March 14th celebrate $\pi$ Day. Hug $\pi$—find a way to do it.

For those who favour $\tau=2\pi$ will have to postpone celebrations until July 26th. That's what you get for thinking that $\pi$ is wrong. I sympathize with this position and have $\tau$ day art too!

If you're not into details, you may opt to party on July 22nd, which is $\pi$ approximation day ($\pi$ ≈ 22/7). It's 20% more accurate that the official $\pi$ day!

Finally, if you believe that $\pi = 3$, you should read why $\pi$ is not equal to 3.

All art posters are available for purchase.
I take custom requests.

For the 2014 $\pi$ day, two styles of posters are available: folded paths and frequency circles.

The folded paths show $\pi$ on a path that maximizes adjacent prime digits and were created using a protein-folding algorithm.

The frequency circles colourfully depict the ratio of digits in groupings of 3 or 6. Oh, look, there's the Feynman Point!

Explore the Feynman Point and other such artefacts in $\pi$ using René Hansen's interactive version of this year's posters.

The Feynman Point

The Feynman Point is the first place where 6 9s occur in π . This happens at digit 762, which is much sooner than expected. Here is π to 1,000 decimal places showing the location of the Feynman point.

$3.1415926535 8979323846 2643383279 5028841971 6939937510 : 50 5820974944 5923078164 0628620899 8628034825 3421170679 : 100 8214808651 3282306647 0938446095 5058223172 5359408128 : 150 4811174502 8410270193 8521105559 6446229489 5493038196 : 200 4428810975 6659334461 2847564823 3786783165 2712019091 : 250 4564856692 3460348610 4543266482 1339360726 0249141273 : 300 7245870066 0631558817 4881520920 9628292540 9171536436 : 350 7892590360 0113305305 4882046652 1384146951 9415116094 : 400 3305727036 5759591953 0921861173 8193261179 3105118548 : 450 0744623799 6274956735 1885752724 8912279381 8301194912 : 500 9833673362 4406566430 8602139494 6395224737 1907021798 : 550 6094370277 0539217176 2931767523 8467481846 7669405132 : 600 0005681271 4526356082 7785771342 7577896091 7363717872 : 650 1468440901 2249534301 4654958537 1050792279 6892589235 : 700 4201995611 2129021960 8640344181 5981362977 4771309960 : 750 5187072113 4999999837 2978049951 0597317328 1609631859 : 800 5024459455 3469083026 4252230825 3344685035 2619311881 : 850 7101000313 7838752886 5875332083 8142061717 7669147303 : 900 5982534904 2875546873 1159562863 8823537875 9375195778 : 950 1857780532 1712268066 1300192787 6611195909 2164201989 : 1000$

As the story goes, Feynman said that he'd like to memorize π up to the first 6 9s so that he could finish the recitation with "nine nine nine nine nine nine and so on". To find a scheme that suggests that π is rational is mathematical humor of the highest order.

We can ask a general question — where is the first place where digit d occurs n times? For example, where do we see the first 5555 (d=5,n=4) or 777777 (d=7,n=6) .

I look into these kinds of locations in π below. If you are interested in integer sequences in general, see the on-line encyclopedia of integer sequences (OEIS)

(d,n) points in π — sequences of repeating digits

I call a location at which digit d is seen n times in a row the (d,n) point. The Feynman point is a specific case — it is a (d=9,n=6) point.

One can talk about all the (d,n) points (i.e. (d,n,0) , (d,n,1) , (d,n,2) ...), which is the set of all locations at which d appears n times. It should be clear from the context whether one point is being referenced, or a set of points.

We can add a location index i to refer to a specific instance of the sequence. The ith appearance of the digit sequence is (d,n,i) . If we're talking about a single point and i is not specified then i=0 is assumed, which refers to the first appearance of the sequence for a given d and n. That is, (d,n) = (d,n,i=0) .

The point (d,1) trivially corresponds to the first occurence of digit d.

Below is a list of all (d,n=6,i=0) points.

$d n i sequence position .....(n x d) ..... 1 6 0 111111 255945 62417(111111)75895 2 6 0 222222 963024 87437(222222)85444 4 6 0 444444 828499 02846(444444)66922 5 6 0 555555 244453 33233(555555)69581 6 6 0 666666 252499 58934(666666)88391 7 6 0 777777 399579 18074(777777)98344 8 6 0 888888 222299 10985(888888)35254 9 6 0 999999 762 21134(999999)83729 # Feynman Point$

examples of (d,n) points in first 1,000,000 digits of π

There are 49 (d,n,i=0) points in the first 1,000,000 digits of π for n>1. For example, the first (d=0,n=4) , which is the first 0000, occurs at digit 13,390 (...93095000090715). The longest sequence of d=0 happens for n=7(d=0,n=7,i=0) is at position 710,100 (...73537333333386381).

$d n i n x d position ...(n x d)... 0 2 0 00 307 24587(00)66063 1 2 0 11 94 25342(11)70679 2 2 0 22 135 55058(22)31725 3 2 0 33 24 46264(33)83279 4 2 0 44 59 09749(44)59230 5 2 0 55 130 44609(55)05822 6 2 0 66 117 28230(66)47093 7 2 0 77 559 43702(77)05392 8 2 0 88 34 79502(88)41971 9 2 0 99 44 71693(99)37510 0 3 0 000 601 05132(000)56812 1 3 0 111 153 12848(111)74502 2 3 0 222 1735 99219(222)18427 3 3 0 333 1698 39414(333)45477 4 3 0 444 2707 42858(444)79526 5 3 0 555 177 52110(555)96446 6 3 0 666 2440 49954(666)72782 7 3 0 777 4575 94764(777)26224 8 3 0 888 4985 08099(888)68741 9 3 0 999 2949 19217(999)83910 0 4 0 0000 13390 93095(0000)90715 1 4 0 1111 12700 42144(1111)26358 2 4 0 2222 4902 35136(2222)47715 3 4 0 3333 66846 31487(3333)67147 4 4 0 4444 54525 11793(4444)82014 5 4 0 5555 33172 96839(5555)68686 6 4 0 6666 21880 23047(6666)72174 7 4 0 7777 1589 28909(7777)27938 8 4 0 8888 4751 16274(8888)00786 9 4 0 9999 17988 98955(9999)11209 0 5 0 00000 17534 66768(00000)10652 1 5 0 11111 32788 46584(11111)57758 2 5 0 22222 65260 99725(22222)80801 3 5 0 33333 28467 52392(33333)64743 4 5 0 44444 808650 64849(44444)73161 5 5 0 55555 24466 89742(55555)16076 6 5 0 66666 48439 71972(66666)42267 7 5 0 77777 162248 47779(77777)18415 8 5 0 88888 213245 09581(88888)03131 9 5 0 99999 19446 21285(99999)39961 1 6 0 111111 255945 62417(111111)75895 2 6 0 222222 963024 87437(222222)85444 4 6 0 444444 828499 02846(444444)66922 5 6 0 555555 244453 33233(555555)69581 6 6 0 666666 252499 58934(666666)88391 7 6 0 777777 399579 18074(777777)98344 8 6 0 888888 222299 10985(888888)35254 9 6 0 999999 762 21134(999999)83729 3 7 0 3333333 710100 73537(3333333)86381$

When we sort this list by position, we can see just how unusual (i.e. early) the Feynman Point is. We also see (d,n=2) , (d,n=3) , (d,n=4) and (d,n=5) points for all digits d) in the first 1,000,000 digits.

$3 2 0 33 24 46264(33)83279 # first n=2 8 2 0 88 34 79502(88)41971 9 2 0 99 44 71693(99)37510 4 2 0 44 59 09749(44)59230 1 2 0 11 94 25342(11)70679 6 2 0 66 117 28230(66)47093 5 2 0 55 130 44609(55)05822 2 2 0 22 135 55058(22)31725 1 3 0 111 153 12848(111)74502 # first n=3 5 3 0 555 177 52110(555)96446 0 2 0 00 307 24587(00)66063 7 2 0 77 559 43702(77)05392 # last n=2 0 3 0 000 601 05132(000)56812 9 6 0 999999 762 21134(999999)83729 # first n=6 (Feynman Point) 7 4 0 7777 1589 28909(7777)27938 # first n=4 3 3 0 333 1698 39414(333)45477 2 3 0 222 1735 99219(222)18427 6 3 0 666 2440 49954(666)72782 4 3 0 444 2707 42858(444)79526 9 3 0 999 2949 19217(999)83910 7 3 0 777 4575 94764(777)26224 8 4 0 8888 4751 16274(8888)00786 2 4 0 2222 4902 35136(2222)47715 8 3 0 888 4985 08099(888)68741 # last n=3 1 4 0 1111 12700 42144(1111)26358 0 4 0 0000 13390 93095(0000)90715 0 5 0 00000 17534 66768(00000)10652 # first n=5 9 4 0 9999 17988 98955(9999)11209 9 5 0 99999 19446 21285(99999)39961 6 4 0 6666 21880 23047(6666)72174 5 5 0 55555 24466 89742(55555)16076 3 5 0 33333 28467 52392(33333)64743 1 5 0 11111 32788 46584(11111)57758 5 4 0 5555 33172 96839(5555)68686 6 5 0 66666 48439 71972(66666)42267 4 4 0 4444 54525 11793(4444)82014 2 5 0 22222 65260 99725(22222)80801 3 4 0 3333 66846 31487(3333)67147 # last n=4 7 5 0 77777 162248 47779(77777)18415 8 5 0 88888 213245 09581(88888)03131 8 6 0 888888 222299 10985(888888)35254 5 6 0 555555 244453 33233(555555)69581 6 6 0 666666 252499 58934(666666)88391 1 6 0 111111 255945 62417(111111)75895 7 6 0 777777 399579 18074(777777)98344 3 7 0 3333333 710100 73537(3333333)86381 # first n=7 4 5 0 44444 808650 64849(44444)73161 # last n=5 4 6 0 444444 828499 02846(444444)66922 2 6 0 222222 963024 87437(222222)85444$

when do we expect (d,n) points?

Any given position in π , 10n different combinations of n digits can appear. In only one of them are all the digits the same and equal to d. Thus, the chance of seeing (d,n) at any position for any given d is p=10n.

The probability of not seeing a (d,n) point at a location for a given d is 1-p.

Thus the probability of not seeing a point at k locations and then seeing one at k+1 location is (1-p)kp. This is the definition of the geometric distribution.

For example, the question "how many times must we throw a die until a 1 appears?" can be addressed by this distribution. Here p=1/6, assuming the die is fair. The probability of seeing a 1 for the first time on the k toss is

$k P(X=k) 1 16.7% = (1-1/6)0 * 1/6 2 13.8% = (1-1/6)1 * 1/6 3 11.6% = (1-1/6)2 * 1/6 4 9.6% = (1-1/6)3 * 1/6 5 6.7% = (1-1/6)4 * 1/6 6 5.6% = (1-1/6)5 * 1/6 ...$

The cumulative probability P(Xk) gives us the chance of seeing a 1 for the first time on the 1, 2, 3 ... or k toss). 1-P(Xk) is the chance of not seeing a 1 in the first 1, 2, 3 ... k tosses.

$k P(X≤k) 1-P(X≤k) 1 16.7% 83.3% 2 30.6% 69.4% 3 42.1% 57.9% 4 51.8% 48.2% 5 59.8% 40.2% 6 66.5% 33.5% ...$

We can apply this calculation to the probability of observing a (d,n) point for the first time. Let's pick (d=9,n=6) . Using p=10–6, let's look at 1-P(Xk). Values in the table below for P are shown to one significant digit, except for the Feynman Point position k=962.

$k P(X≤k) 1-P(X≤k) 1 0.000001 0.999999 10 0.00001 0.99999 100 0.0001 0.9999 962 0.000962 0.999037 1000 0.001 0.999 10000 0.01 0.99 100000 0.1 0.9 693147 0.5 0.5$

Now we know just how unlikely the Feynman Point is. The chance of observing 6 9s in the first 962 digits is about 0.000962.

These probabilities are approximate because probability that a sequence of n digits appears at any given position is correlated across a window of n-1 digits. For example if we see (d=9,6) at position j then the probability of seeing (d=9,6) at position j+1 is 1/10, not 10–6, because we are guaranteed the first 5 9s.

all (d,n) points in 268 million digits of π

If you're interested in more (d,n) points, I calculated all for lengths n≥3 for the first ~268 million digits of π — you can download the complete list of the 2.42 million (d,n) points.

Most of these points are (d,n=3) (2.17 million). The count as function of n is

$n number of (d,n) points 3 2174839 4 217431 5 21749 6 2153 7 204 8 19 9 3$

The Feynman Point is (d=9,n=6,i=0) . With 268 million digits, we can find up to (d=9,n=8,i=0) — the first places in which 8 9's appear in a row. All the (d=9,n,i=9) points in the first 268 million digits of π are

$9 3 0 999 2949 19217(999)83910 9 4 0 9999 17988 98955(9999)11209 9 5 0 99999 19446 21285(99999)39961 9 6 0 999999 762 21134(999999)83729 9 7 0 9999999 1722776 09713(9999999)31766 9 8 0 99999999 36356642 15746(99999999)54228$

The longest sequences are for n=8 and 9, of which there are 50. We see a (d,n=8,0) point for all d.

$0 8 0 00000000 172330850 65581(00000000)12202 0 8 1 00000000 184688988 50614(00000000)27944 1 8 0 11111111 159090113 46225(11111111)09751 1 8 1 11111111 174624972 36529(11111111)76023 1 8 2 11111111 199394968 58734(11111111)25842 2 8 0 22222222 175820910 95134(22222222)07695 3 8 0 33333333 36488176 81791(33333333)25108 3 8 1 33333333 248922246 51334(33333333)47253 4 8 0 44444444 22931745 74369(44444444)36403 4 8 1 44444444 65122865 35213(44444444)82112 4 8 2 44444444 221749424 95631(44444444)79916 5 8 0 55555555 168743355 75041(55555555)01882 6 8 0 66666666 55616210 64263(66666666)81935 6 8 1 66666666 129423072 80429(66666666)81580 6 8 2 66666666 160301327 23994(66666666)89064 7 8 0 77777777 82144203 84454(77777777)83966 8 8 0 88888888 239798471 04446(88888888)16169 9 8 0 99999999 36356642 15746(99999999)54228 9 8 1 99999999 66780105 26137(99999999)31798 6 9 0 666666666 45681781 79094(666666666)71734 7 9 0 777777777 24658601 85304(777777777)24846 8 9 0 888888888 46663520 87842(888888888)07509$

subsequences of π in 268 million digits of π

Finally, it's interesting to see where subsequences of π occurs in π . Because π is random and non-terminating, it has infinitely many subsequences of itself in it — this is hard to think about.

In the first 268 million digits of π you see subsequences up to 8 digits, not counting the trivial one that starts at zero.

$3 1 0 9 59265(3)58979 31 2 0 137 05822(31)72535 314 3 0 2120 96514(314)29809 3141 4 0 3496 67110(3141)26711 31415 5 0 88008 96265(31415)14138 314159 6 0 176451 24573(314159)78761 3141592 7 0 25198140 60173(3141592)14513 31415926 8 0 50366472 17005(31415926)09521$

We can also find e (2.718281828) up to 9 digits in the first 268 digits of π .

$2 1 0 6 14159(2)65358 27 2 0 28 43383(27)95028 271 3 0 241 83165(271)20190 2718 4 0 11706 24322(2718)85159 27182 5 0 28024 10077(27182)71874 271828 6 0 33789 50445(271828)92749 2718281 7 0 1526800 07421(2718281)53375 27182818 8 0 73154827 92454(27182818)56113 271828182 9 0 246890641 99305(271828182)91617$

as well as φ (1.618033989) up to 8 digits,

$1 1 0 1 3(1)41592 16 2 0 40 84197(16)93993 161 3 0 1610 70600(161)45249 1618 4 0 6004 60290(1618)76679 16180 5 0 105857 23121(16180)99462 161803 6 0 144979 54397(161803)03956 1618033 7 0 1205122 51502(1618033)21817 16180339 8 0 19445230 33490(16180339)99933$

as well as 1/ φ = 1– φ up to 6 digits.

$0 1 0 32 32795(0)28841 06 2 0 71 78164(06)28620 061 3 0 885 38142(061)71776 0618 4 0 14423 26086(0618)72455 06180 5 0 84671 08181(06180)21002 061803 6 0 933127 07779(061803)00371 0618033 7 0 12074179 53993(0618033)75138 06180339 8 0 200380161 62492(06180339)55938$

Virus Mutations Reveal How COVID-19 Really Spread

Mon 04-05-2020

Genetic sequences of the coronavirus tell story of when the virus arrived in each country and where it came from.

Our graphic in Scientific American's Graphic Science section in the June 2020 issue shows a phylogenetic tree based on a snapshot of the data model from Nextstrain as of 31 March 2020.

Virus Mutations Reveal How COVID-19 Really Spread. Text by Mark Fischetti (Senior Editor), art direction by Jen Christiansen (Senior Graphics Editor), source: Nextstrain (enabled by data from GISAID).

Cover of Nature Cancer April 2020

Mon 27-04-2020

Our design on the cover of Nature Cancer's April 2020 issue shows mutation spectra of patients from the POG570 cohort of 570 individuals with advanced metastatic cancer.

Each ellipse system represents the mutation spectrum of an individual patient. Individual ellipses in the system correspond to the number of base changes in a given class and are layered by mutation count. Ellipse angle is controlled by the proportion of mutations in a class within the sample and its size is determined by a sigmoid mapping of mutation count scaled within the layer. The opacity of each system represents the duration since the diagnosis of advanced disease. (read more)

The cover design accompanies our report in the issue Pleasance, E., Titmuss, E., Williamson, L. et al. (2020) Pan-cancer analysis of advanced patient tumors reveals interactions between therapy and genomic landscapes. Nat Cancer 1:452–468.

Modeling infectious epidemics

Wed 06-05-2020

Every day sadder and sadder news of its increase. In the City died this week 7496; and of them, 6102 of the plague. But it is feared that the true number of the dead this week is near 10,000 ....
—Samuel Pepys, 1665

This month, we begin a series of columns on epidemiological models. We start with the basic SIR model, which models the spread of an infection between three groups in a population: susceptible, infected and recovered.

Nature Methods Points of Significance column: Modeling infectious epidemics. (read)

We discuss conditions under which an outbreak occurs, estimates of spread characteristics and the effects that mitigation can play on disease trajectories. We show the trends that arise when "flattenting the curve" by decreasing $R_0$.

Nature Methods Points of Significance column: Modeling infectious epidemics. (read)

This column has an interactive supplemental component that allows you to explore how the model curves change with parameters such as infectious period, basic reproduction number and vaccination level.

Nature Methods Points of Significance column: Modeling infectious epidemics. (Interactive supplemental materials)

Bjørnstad, O.N., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2020) Points of significance: Modeling infectious epidemics. Nature Methods 17:455–456.

The Outbreak Poems

Sat 04-04-2020

I'm writing poetry daily to put my feelings into words more often during the COVID-19 outbreak.

$Small hours of the world and me.$

Deadly Genomes: Genome Structure and Size of Harmful Bacteria and Viruses

Tue 17-03-2020

A poster full of epidemiological worry and statistics. Now updated with the genome of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 case statistics as of 3 March 2020.

Deadly Genomes: Genome Structure and Size of Harmful Bacteria and Viruses (zoom)

Bacterial and viral genomes of various diseases are drawn as paths with color encoding local GC content and curvature encoding local repeat content. Position of the genome encodes prevalence and mortality rate.

The deadly genomes collection has been updated with a posters of the genomes of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Genomes of 56 SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses that causes COVID-19.
Ball of 56 SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses that causes COVID-19.
The first SARS-CoV-2 genome (MT019529) to be sequenced appears first on the poster.

Using Circos in Galaxy Australia Workshop

Wed 04-03-2020

A workshop in using the Circos Galaxy wrapper by Hiltemann and Rasche. Event organized by Australian Biocommons.

Using Circos in Galaxy Australia workshop. (zoom)

Galaxy wrapper training materials, Saskia Hiltemann, Helena Rasche, 2020 Visualisation with Circos (Galaxy Training Materials).