Trance opera—Spente le Stelle
• be dramatic

The Hummer font is a slightly modified Antique Olive Nord. The *Like Nothing Else* tag line is Trade Gothic. Both have character widths increased to 110-120% and individually adjusted kerning. Get the Illustrator CS5 file for both logos.

This project might give you the impression that I don't like Hummers. You'd be right.

The Maurauder. Over 25,000 lb — five times what an H3 weighs. Enough said.

Hummers are a cultural equivalent of a toxic warning label and have the same effect on me as bug spray on mosquitoes.

I am not the first one to satirize this automotive aberration, so there's some hope.

GM's advertisement images require no modification for the satire, which makes it all that much better.

I could have just as well used the Lincoln Navigator or Cadillac Escalade, but they don't embody the superlative like the Hummer.

The Hummer brand proved itself to be aesthetically, rationally and economically unsustainable and collapsed after a failed attempt to sell it to China. There continues to be a robust market for used Hummers. Let the farce continue.

It delights me that this project produced my *first hate mail*.

Only a Canadian and a liberal professor, would set up a website as ludicrous as Dummer.com.

Extremely Dumb!

If you are going to make fun of a Hummer, what about a Dodge powerwagon that obtains less miles per gallon? Many other vehicles on the road with worse mileage. But, I guess your location, and your profession tells it all.

Have a great day in BC...

Doug

I want to meet Doug and give him a hug for adding another dimension to this project.

The images got picked up by the New York Times laughlines blog, which drew a couple of fan mails.

Excellent work. One of the best ad parodies I've seen.

Gil

I don't normally write people to tell them I think their web work is good/bad, but I had to write and just say I think these are fucking brilliant. Should probably look into getting them made into billboards.

Dave

But neither made me feel as good as Doug's email.

Building on last month's column about Bayes' Theorem, we introduce Bayesian inference and contrast it to frequentist inference.

Given a hypothesis and a model, the frequentist calculates the probability of different data generated by the model, *P*(data|model). When this probability to obtain the observed data from the model is small (e.g. `alpha` = 0.05), the frequentist rejects the hypothesis.

In contrast, the Bayesian makes direct probability statements about the model by calculating P(model|data). In other words, given the observed data, the probability that the model is correct. With this approach it is possible to relate the probability of different models to identify one that is most compatible with the data.

The Bayesian approach is actually more intuitive. From the frequentist point of view, the probability used to assess the veracity of a hypothesis, P(data|model), commonly referred to as the *P* value, does not help us determine the probability that the model is correct. In fact, the *P* value is commonly misinterpreted as the probability that the hypothesis is right. This is the so-called "prosecutor's fallacy", which confuses the two conditional probabilities *P*(data|model) for *P*(model|data). It is the latter quantity that is more directly useful and calculated by the Bayesian.

Puga, J.L, Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2015) Points of Significance: Bayes' Theorem *Nature Methods* **12**:277-278.

Puga, J.L, Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2015) Points of Significance: Bayes' Theorem *Nature Methods* **12**:277-278.

In our first column on Bayesian statistics, we introduce conditional probabilities and Bayes' theorem

*P*(B|A) = *P*(A|B) × *P*(B) / *P*(A)

This relationship between conditional probabilities *P*(B|A) and *P*(A|B) is central in Bayesian statistics. We illustrate how Bayes' theorem can be used to quickly calculate useful probabilities that are more difficult to conceptualize within a frequentist framework.

Using Bayes' theorem, we can incorporate our beliefs and prior experience about a system and update it when data are collected.

Puga, J.L, Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2015) Points of Significance: Bayes' Theorem *Nature Methods* **12**:277-278.

Oldford, R.W. & Cherry, W.H. Picturing probability: the poverty of Venn diagrams, the richness of eikosograms. (University of Waterloo, 2006)

Celebrate `pi` Day (March 14th) with splitting its digit endlessly. This year I use a treemap approach to encode the digits in the style of Piet Mondrian.

The art has been featured in Ana Swanson's Wonkblog article at the Washington Post—10 Stunning Images Show The Beauty Hidden in `pi`.

I also have art from 2013 `pi` Day and 2014 `pi` Day.

The split plot design originated in agriculture, where applying some factors on a small scale is more difficult than others. For example, it's harder to cost-effectively irrigate a small piece of land than a large one. These differences are also present in biological experiments. For example, temperature and housing conditions are easier to vary for groups of animals than for individuals.

The split plot design is an expansion on the concept of blocking—all split plot designs include at least one randomized complete block design. The split plot design is also useful for cases where one wants to increase the sensitivity in one factor (sub-plot) more than another (whole plot).

Altman, N. & Krzywinski, M. (2015) Points of Significance: Split Plot Design *Nature Methods* **12**:165-166.

1. Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Designing Comparative Experiments *Nature Methods* **11**:597-598.

2. Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and blocking *Nature Methods* **11**:699-700.

3. Blainey, P., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Replication *Nature Methods* **11**:879-880.