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Distractions and amusements, with a sandwich and coffee.

Thoughts rearrange, familiar now strange.
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• break flowers
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On March 14th celebrate Pi Day. Hug `\pi`—find a way to do it.

For those who favour `\tau=2\pi` will have to postpone celebrations until July 26th. That's what you get for thinking that `\pi` is wrong.

If you're not into details, you may opt to party on July 22nd, which is `\pi` approximation day (`\pi` ≈ 22/7). It's 20% more accurate that the official Pi day!

Finally, if you believe that `\pi = 3`, you should read why `\pi` is not equal to 3.

2013 was the first year in which I made `\pi` day art. It was a year of dots and love.

Let's explore what `\pi` looks like with something whimsical and pretty and colourful.

Rational art of the highly irrational, a regime where beauty runs with her hair down and lets her "*ribbons to flow confusedly.*" Robert Herrick says it well in Sweet Disorder,

I see a wild civility;—

Do more bewitch me, than when art

Is too precise in every part.

*Some outliers influence the regression fit more than others.*

This month our column addresses the effect that outliers have on linear regression.

You may be surprised, but not all outliers have the same influence on the fit (e.g. regression slope) or inference (e.g. confidence or prediction intervals). Outliers with large leverage—points that are far from the sample average—can have a very large effect. On the other hand, if the outlier is close to the sample average, it may not influence the regression slope at all.

Quantities such as Cook's distance and the so-called hat matrix, which defines leverage, are useful in assessing the effect of outliers.

Altman, N. & Krzywinski, M. (2015) Points of Significance: Multiple Linear Regression *Nature Methods* **12**:1103-1104.

Altman, N. & Krzywinski, M. (2015) Points of significance: Simple Linear Regression *Nature Methods* **12**:999-1000.

Chirp, chirp, chirp but much better looking.

If you like these, check out my other typographical art posters.

Celebrate `\\pi` Day (March 14th) with colliding digits in space. This year, I celebrate the detection of gravitational waves at the LIGO lab and simulate the effect of gravity on masses created from the digits of `\\pi`.

Some strange things can happen.

The art is featured in the Gravity of Pi article on the Scientific American SA Visual blog.

Check out art from previous years: 2013 `\\pi` Day and 2014 `\\pi` Day and 2015 `\\pi` Day.

*Use alignment and consistency to untangle complex circuit diagrams.*

This month we apply the ideas presented in our column about drawing pathways to neural circuit diagrams. Neural circuits are networks of cells or regions, typically with a large number of variables, such as cell and neurotransmitter type.

We discuss how to effectively route arrows, how to avoid pitfalls of redundant encoding and suggest ways to encorporate emphasis in the layout.

Hunnicutt, B.J. & Krzywinski, M. (2016) Points of View: Neural circuit diagrams. Nature Methods 13:189.

Hunnicutt, B.J. & Krzywinski, M. (2016) Points of Viev: Pathways. Nature Methods 13:5.

Wong, B. (2010) Points of Viev: Gestalt principles (part 1). Nature Methods 7:863.

Wong, B. (2010) Points of Viev: Gestalt principles (part 2). Nature Methods 7:941.

*Apply visual grouping principles to add clarity to information flow in pathway diagrams.*

We draw on the Gestalt principles of connection, grouping and enclosure to construct practical guidelines for drawing pathways with a clear layout that maintains hierarchy.

We include tips about how to use negative space and align nodes to emphasizxe groups and how to effectively draw curved arrows to clearly show paths.

Hunnicutt, B.J. & Krzywinski, M. (2016) Points of Viev: Pathways. Nature Methods 13:5.

Wong, B. (2010) Points of Viev: Gestalt principles (part 1). Nature Methods 7:863.

Wong, B. (2010) Points of Viev: Gestalt principles (part 2). Nature Methods 7:941.

*When multiple variables are associated with a response, the interpretation of a prediction equation is seldom simple.*

This month we continue with the topic of regression and expand the discussion of simple linear regression to include more than one variable. As it turns out, although the analysis and presentation of results builds naturally on the case with a single variable, the interpretation of the results is confounded by the presence of correlation between the variables.

By extending the example of the relationship of weight and height—we now include jump height as a second variable that influences weight—we show that the regression coefficient estimates can be very inaccurate and even have the wrong sign when the predictors are correlated and only one is considered in the model.

Care must be taken! Accurate prediction of the response is not an indication that regression slopes reflect the true relationship between the predictors and the response.

Altman, N. & Krzywinski, M. (2015) Points of Significance: Multiple Linear Regression *Nature Methods* **12**:1103-1104.

Altman, N. & Krzywinski, M. (2015) Points of significance: Simple Linear Regression *Nature Methods* **12**:999-1000.