Let me tell you about something.

Distractions and amusements, with a sandwich and coffee.

Poetry is just the evidence of life. If your life is burning well, poetry is just the ash
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Typography geek? If you like the geometry and mathematics of these posters, you may enjoy something more lettered. Visions of type: Type Peep Show: The Private Curves of Letters posters.

Watch the video at Numberphile about my art.

numbers.tgz

1,000,000 digits of π, φ, e and ASN.

All the artwork can be purchased from Fine Art America. Most of the pieces were created by myself, and some by Cristian Ilies Vasile.

Numerology is bogus, but art based on numbers has a beautiful random quality.

For other examples of numerical art, see my *i*nessiness project. Nixie clock lovers should investigate the accidental similarity number (ASN), which I render in a ASN Nixie poster.

It's fitting to use Circos to visualize the digits of π. After all, what is more round than Circos?

Cristian Ilies Vasile had the idea of representing the digits of π as a path traced by links between successive digits. Each digit is assigned a segment around the circle and a link between segment *i* and *j* corresponds to the appearance of *ij* in π. For example, the "14" in "3.14..." is drawn as a link between segment 1 and segment 4.

The position of the link on a digit's segment is associated with the position of the digit π. For example, the "14" link associated with the 2nd digit (1) and the 3rd digit (4) is drawn from position 2 on the 1 segment to position 3 on the 4 segment.

As more digits are added to the path, the image becomes a weaving mandala.

I added to Cristian's representation by showing the number of transitions between digits in a series of concentric circles placed outside the links. This summary representation counts the number of transition links within a region and addresses the question of what kind of digits appear immediately before or after a given digit in π. The approach is diagrammed below.

The original images were generated using the 10-color Brewer paired qualitative palette, which was later modified as shown below.

The bubbles that count the number of links quickly draw attention to regions where specific digit pairs are frequent. In the image for π below, which shows transitions for the first 1,000 digits, the large bubble on the 9 segment is due to the sequence "999999" sequence at decimal place 762.

This sequence of 6 9's occurs significantly earlier than expected by chance. Because the distribution and sequence of digits of π is, as far as we know, uniformly random, we can calculate how frequently we should expect a series of 6 identical digits.

For a given digit, the chance that the next 5 digits are the same is 0.00001 (0.1 that the next digit is the same * 0.1 that the second-nex digit is the same * ...). Therefore the chance that a given position the next 5 digits are *not* the same is 1 - 1/0.00001 = 0.99999. From this, the chance that *k* consecutive digits don't initiate a 6-digit sequence is therefore 0.99999^{k}.

If I ask what is *k* for which this value is 0.5, I need to solve 0.99999^{k}, which gives *k* = 69,314. Thus, chances are 50-50 that in a 69,000 digit random sequence we'll see a run of 6 idendical digits. This calculation is an approximation.

It's fun to look for words in π. For example, love appears at 13,099,586th digit.

The transition probabilities for each 10 digit bin for the first 2,000 digits of π, φ and e are shown in the image below.

The digits of π are, as far as we know, randomly distributed. Art based on its digits therefore as a quality that is influenced by this random distribution. To provide a reference of what such a random pattern looks like, below are 16 random numbers represented in the same way. They're all different, yet strangely the same.

Below are more images by Cristian Ilies Vasile, where dots are used to represent the adjacency between digits. As in the image above, each digit 0-9 is represented by a colored segment. For each digit sequence *ij*, a dot is placed on *i*th's segment at the position of *i* colored by *j*.

For example, for π the dot coordinates for the first 7 digits are (segment:position:label) 3:0:1 → 1:1:4 → 4:2:1 → 1:3:5 → 5:4:9 ...

segment position colored_by 3 0 1 1 1 4 4 2 1 1 3 5 5 4 9 9 5 2 2 6 6

Because there is a large number of digits, the dots stack up near their position to avoid overlapping. The layout of the dots is automated by Circos' text track layout.

When the digits of π, e and φ are aligned, positions at which the three numbers have the same digit yield the accidental similarity number (ASN). Below is a dot plot of the transition of the ASN.

By mapping the digits onto a red-yellow-blue Brewer palette (0 9) and placing them as circles on an Archimedean spiral a dense and pleasant layout can be obtained.

Why the Archimedean spiral? This spiral is defined as *r* = *a* + *b*θ and has the interesting property that a ray from the origin will intersect the spiral every 2π*b*. Thus, each spiral can accomodate inscribed circles of radius π*b*.

Why the Brewer palette? These color schemes have some very useful perceptual properties and are commonly used to encode quantitative and categorical data.

In an audience of 8 men and 8 women, chances are 50% that at least one has some degree of color blindness^{1}. When encoding information or designing content, use colors that is color-blind safe.

Nature Methods has announced the launch of a new statistics collection for biologists.

As part of that collection, announced that the entire Points of Significance collection is now open access.

This is great news for educators—the column can now be freely distributed in classrooms.

I've posted a writeup about the design and redesign process behind the figures in our Nature Methods Points of Significance column.

I have selected several figures from our past columns and show how they evolved from their draft to published versions.

Clarity, concision and space constraints—we have only 3.4" of horizontal space— all have to be balanced for a figure to be effective.

It's nearly impossible to find case studies of scientific articles (or figures) through the editing and review process. Nobody wants to show their drafts. With this writeup I hope to add to this space and encourage others to reveal their process. Students love this. See whether you agree with my decisions!

Past columns have described experimental designs that mitigate the effect of variation: random assignment, blocking and replication.

The goal of these designs is to observe a reproducible effect that can be due only to the treatment, avoiding confounding and bias. Simultaneously, to sample enough variability to estimate how much we expect the effect to differ if the measurements are repeated with similar but not identical samples (replicates).

We need to distinguish between sources of variation that are nuisance factors in our goal to measure mean biological effects from those that are required to assess how much effects vary in the population.

Altman, N. & Krzywinski, M. (2014) Points of Significance: Two Factor Designs *Nature Methods* **11**:5-6.

1. Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Designing Comparative Experiments *Nature Methods* **11**:597-598.

2. Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and blocking *Nature Methods* **11**:699-700.

3. Blainey, P., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Replication *Nature Methods* **11**:879-880.

We've previously written about how to analyze the impact of one variable in our ANOVA column. Complex biological systems are rarely so obliging—multiple experimental factors interact and producing effects.

ANOVA is a natural way to analyze multiple factors. It can incorporate the possibility that the factors interact—the effect of one factor depends on the level of another factor. For example, the potency of a drug may depend on the subject's diet.

We can increase the power of the analysis by allowing for interaction, as well as by blocking.

Krzywinski, M., Altman, (2014) Points of Significance: Two Factor Designs *Nature Methods* **11**:1187-1188.

Blainey, P., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Replication *Nature Methods* **11**:879-880.

Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and blocking *Nature Methods* **11**:699-700.

Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Designing Comparative Experiments *Nature Methods* **11**:597-598.

Sources of noise in experiments can be mitigated and assessed by nested designs. This kind of experimental design naturally models replication, which was the topic of last month's column.

Nested designs are appropriate when we want to use the data derived from experimental subjects to make general statements about populations. In this case, the subjects are *random* factors in the experiment, in contrast to *fixed* factors, such as we've seen previously.

In ANOVA analysis, random factors provide information about the amount of noise contributed by each factor. This is different from inferences made about fixed factors, which typically deal with a change in mean. Using the F-test, we can determine whether each layer of replication (e.g. animal, tissue, cell) contributes additional variation to the overall measurement.

Krzywinski, M., Altman, N. & Blainey, P. (2014) Points of Significance: Nested designs *Nature Methods* **11**:977-978.

Blainey, P., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Replication *Nature Methods* **11**:879-880.

Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and blocking *Nature Methods* **11**:699-700.

Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2014) Points of Significance: Designing Comparative Experiments *Nature Methods* **11**:597-598.